Oyster Bay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS61 KOKX 141734
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time. Updated for aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this
afternoon into tonight.

2) High rip current risk for ocean beaches.

3) Minor coastal flooding for portions of the coast during time
of the high tide this evening/night.

4) A robust low pressure system may impact the area later this
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
The Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk of severe
storms for the majority of the CWA, with a marginal risk across
far eastern sections in the convective outlook, mainly for late
afternoon into the evening. Forecast soundings are suggestive
of some capping / convective inhibition in the lower portions of
the mid levels. Instability is progged to decrease further
northeast and east across the region, with moderate instability
further west and southwest. One favorable aspect to convective
chances is around storm organization as shear values would be
sufficient and progged around 40 kt or thereabouts late in the
day, and increasing further into the evening.

However, with the aforementioned inhibition potential with a
weak elevated warm front possibly existing in the warm sector
ahead of the approaching cold front, convection and especially
severe convection potential is quite conditional. If some
updrafts can break through then there would be a strong to
damaging wind threat with any storms as low level lapse rates
are high and with LCLs slightly elevated there could be strong
downdraft wind potential. At this point in time storm rotation
and the best supercell potential appears to reside just south of
the area. Will continue to monitor this for a potential shift
further north into our area. At this time the potential for hail
and localized flash flooding is marginal at best as storms are
expected to move along, and the relatively higher mid- level
lapse rate potential residing just west and southwest of the
region. The timeframe for any strong to severe thunderstorm
activity is from approximately from 4 pm to 10 pm as the cold
front is expected to pass through from west to east around 12 am
to 6 am Monday.

Another thing to note is that if storms move into the area more
in the evening, the risk of storms becoming severe will be
reduced as a low level inversion development may limit the
potential of stronger gusts that make it to the surface. That
begin said, even if this were to occur, widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected overnight.

On a side note; though it will be quite warm to hot today,
humidity levels are not forecast to be overly oppressive with
dew point readings forecast to remain primarily in the lower
half of the 60s. This should lead to heat indices below 95, and
closer to 90 across the warmest locations. Thus heat headlines
will not be needed.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A high rip current risk is in place for all ocean beaches today.
For the more eastern ocean beaches the risk may be more on a
moderate scale initially, but by the mid to late afternoon a S
wind increasing should produce strong rip currents. Winds will
increase out of the south at 15 to 20 kt for western beaches,
and more like 10 to 15 kt out east. Surf heights look to peak at
around 3 to 4 ft along with a lingering 6 to 8 second swell
component out of the southeast. The risk should fall to a
moderate level on Monday, however it is not out of the question
that the high risk could linger into a portion of Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Another round of minor coastal flooding is on tap for the
evening/nighttime high tide cycle. The combination of high
astronomical tides due to a new moon and southerly winds will
likely result in water levels 2 to 3 tenths higher than last
night. This will put the more vulnerable locations across the
south shore back bays of Nassau, coastal Fairfield, and
locations adjacent to the Kill Van Kull, Newark bay, and the
Arthur Kill several tenths above minor coastal flood benchmarks.
These locations are all under a coastal flood advisory for
tonight`s high tide cycle. Also, portions of Southeast Suffolk
and lower Westchester will approach minor flood benchmarks.

With tides being astronomically high, water levels will remain
close to minor coastal flood benchmarks for some or most of
these same locations into Monday and Tuesday nights.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
A strong low pressure system may develop over the center of the
country and approach from the west later in the week, possibly
impacting the area around Thursday. SPC has portions of the area
in a Day 5 15 % chance of severe weather. Details regarding
this possible system will come into focus in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west into this evening, passing
through during the overnight.

Winds will be more southerly flow this afternoon at mainly 10-15kt,
with most terminals G20-25kt by afternoon. Prevailing gusts likely
do not occur at KBDR and KGON as they don`t look to mix deep enough
for frequent gusts. KJFK may see gusts up to 30kt or at least a high
sustained wind in the afternoon close to around 20 kt due to a
coastal / Ambrose jet that forms. Wind gusts will be slow to
diminish in the evening with some mixing expected ahead of
convection along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will
veer to the W/WSW overnight and eventually NW behind the cold
frontal passage towards daybreak Monday.

There could be a brief period of SW LLWS just ahead of the cold
front tonight. Best chance relatively speaking will be at the
eastern terminals. Confidence of occurrence remains low enough to
keep out of the TAFs.

Showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front are
expected to impact the area terminals this evening through the first
half of tonight. Right now, the best chances will be between 00Z-06z
for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals and bit later to the
east. There still remains a large amount of uncertainty as to
whether scattered convection develops well out ahead of the cold
front during the late afternoon/early evening hours (19-22z). Will
continue to monitor with amendments possible for any late afternoon
convection. In addition, while the convective models do vary in
intensity with the line of showers and thunderstorms later in the
evening, some weakening is expected as it approaches the coastal
terminals.

MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible in showers and thunderstorms.
There also looks to be a period of low clouds moving in off the
ocean waters tonight, likely impacting KISP, KBDR, and KGON as this
is reflected in latest TAFs.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional than frequent this afternoon,
especially at KJFK.

Peak gusts to near 30kt possible.

Amendments may be needed for the 19-22z time frame for any scattered
thunderstorms. Also, amendments possible to fine tune timing of
02-06z TSRA tempo groups.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday afternoon through Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with a chance of sub VFR conditions in
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with a chances of sub VFR conditions
increasing towards afternoon and evening with showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday: Sub VFR possible early, otherwise VFR with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions develop by midday on most of the
waters and should continue through about midnight as a
southerly wind increases. Conditions should then subside from
west to east with all zones likely returning to sub advisory
conditions by 6 am Monday.

Sub advisory conditions will continue Monday through Wednesday.
During the late afternoon hours for both Tuesday and Wednesday
a few gusts may approach 20 kt, more so for the western ocean so
a few brief periods of marginal small craft gusts cannot be
ruled out, however mainly sub advisory conditions are expected
to prevail. A low pressure system approaching Thursday may
result in an increase in winds and waves.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ074-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MW